The Science of Competence (AKA: Dunning-Kruger)

You know when it looks so easy, you’re convinced you could do it on the first try? You may be in the first stages of a Dunning-Kruger experience.

I had absolutely every intention of posting all about slime molds this week – how we should all be incorporating slime molds into our murder investigations because they are that cool.

Instead, current events (coordinating military strikes over group chats anyone?) demand thatI spend some time going over the science of competence. Happen to be designing characters who need a flawed expertise that’s convincing? You’ve come to the right place.

The Science of Dunning-Kruger (DK): When we’re so dumb we’re convinced we’re a genius.

Recently tried something new and think you’re a genius at it? Maybe, but you could be experiencing the Dunning-Kruger effect.

By now, everyone on the planet pretty well has heard about the military strike on Yemen that the USA used an unsecured ‘group chat’ to organize their battle plans (apparently complete with emojis too!). There’s certainly some mud on people’s face, but could we be looking at some good ol’ Dunning-Kruger in real time (DK)?.

The DK phenomenon (named after psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger) was coined in 1999, and basically what it describes in simplest terms is a cognitive bias. What they noticed was that there is a trend for people with low competence in a particular area (note: not low intelligence) tend to… overestimate their abilities. A LOT. Think of when you watch an Olympic event, like skating. The figure skaters make it look so damn easy that someone sitting in an armchair all of a sudden becomes, well, an expert. Or even an instance where you’ve maybe begun a new hobby (like writing a novel) and start off thinking that this is a piece of cake! What are all these writer’s complaining about? You’ll be on the NYT list in no time!

I mean, they make it look so darn easy. How hard could it really be?

Though we all like to giggle at a fictional character (or politician) who’s convinced they’re good at something they aren’t, there a serious and dark flip side to the DK coin; that people with HIGH competence may UNDERESTIMATE their relative expertise.

Author’s and female CEOs often talk about feeling imposter syndrome; the overpowering sense that they aren’t as qualified as they really are. That can be catastrophic in the real world and in fiction. Where someone who doesn’t understand a concept (like, say measles and herd immunity) but is convinced they know best confidently speaks over the scientists in the room who may start to ask themselves, is there something they know I don’t?

Confidence does not a doctor make. I’d rather have the person who spent 4 years in med school and admits they don’t know everything helping make my medical choices, not the one who ‘read a really cool article’ over the weekend.

The third aspect of Dunning-Kruger is metacognition, your ‘thinking’ abilities. It’s essentially your inclination to asses and challenge your own assumptions about your skill. For example, a few weeks ago I got on a pair of ice skates after years, falsely assuming that I’d be able to skate just like when I was a kid.

I was woefully wrong.

I reassessed my assumptions about my skill and as a result signed up for adult skating lessons.

Now, it was relatively easy to asses that I was wrong about my skating skills. I could not complete my task (skating to the centre of the rink… or anywhere). But there are other topics and areas – politics, military planning, espionage – where assessing whether you’ve been successful is…trickier, nebulous. I’m of the opinion that this is where Dunning-Kruger becomes outright dangerous, when the most confident person in the room who’s convinced they’re an expert… has no meaningful way to assess whether they’re any good at it.

How does all this fit into story and writing? Well, side characters, main characters, villains – when you’re designing believable people, keeping in mind that the one who is the most certain they’re right, may not be capable of knowing how woefully wrong they are can certainly help throw a wrench in a murder mystery turn around, or in a political thriller.

Also, that for character to grow believably (like we do in RL), the pursuit of life-long learning, seeking out feedback, and reassessment are priceless traits. Oh, and a little humility goes a long way too.

Just wait! You’ll see me on the NYT bestseller list in no time!

TL;DR Dunning Kruger

1. Overestimation of ability by someone who is not particularly skilled.

2. Underestimation by highly skilled individuals. Perhaps less likely to correct those who keep shouting how right they are? Perhaps there’s something they don’t know?

3. That same low competence individual who grades themselves highly lacks the metacognitive (thinking) skills necessary to accurately assess their own abilities.

4. As skill goes up, confidence goes down (theoretically) as one becomes aware of their limitations, and (gradually) increases again with genuine skill development.

The Science of Romance: Young, in Love, and Enthralled by Biochem!

It’s that time of year.

I know it’s that time of year (every year) because of the enraptured bald eagle exhibitionists getting it on in the tree across from my kitchen window. And then there are all the other creatures that soon follow: the otters, hummingbirds, mallards, Canada geese (true assholes), beavers, and coyotes. Recently there were even some high schoolers.

Perhaps I should explain. I live in a strange juxtoposition of contradictions. My appartment backs on to protected wetlands with all sorts of wildlife who (mostly) fly into breed. The hummingbirds are currently chasing pieces of cat hair and fluff from my balcony as they build their nests. In a few months, the adorable mini-fluffs will all make themselves known as they leave their dens and patrol the pond.

Then there is the other mammal that frequents this picturesque nature preserve for spring-minded activities. The high school variety.

Yes, the nature preserve, and all its pathways and not in any way hidden nooks, also backs onto a high school.

TL;DR: Apparently everything is determined to fuck in my backyard this year, in sight of my living room window no less.

Now, in the recent high schooler’s defence, I am absolutely positive they didn’t think anyone could see them (a lot of people could, it wasn’t just me, there was talk in the mailroom the next day). More importantly, I suspect they headed for the forest so that they wouldn’t be seen by anyone – classmates, parents, grandparents (yes, this building is home to some of those same high school student’s grandparents). However, their desire (see what I did there?) to procreate led to some questionable decisions. Those same kinds of hormones and shift in season that make all the birds, furry aquatic mammals, and fish beeline to the nightclub of the animal world that is my backyard, also wreck their chaotic designs on the hapless teenagers (perhaps it’s contagious on a quantum level?) leading them not just to procreation but to a spectacularly bad choice in location.

Yeah. You two. Don’t think I don’t know what you eagle exhibitionists are up to…

So, in the spirit of spring, romance, and how to create conflict in romance (or romantic plot lines) I want to talk about bad decisions and all the wonderful hormones that cause them! Knowing the science behind what makes people want to ‘discovery channel it’ in public makes writing our enamoured character (and their poor choices) all that more believable.

You name it, if it breeds, it’s probably trying to screw outside my window.

Big Question: Do my various exhibitionists have any control over themselves?

That’s a sliding scale. In some cases, not really.

Most animals have a trifecta of things working against them in spring. Let’s take a very simplified look.

Hormone Pathways Rule the World

Longer days kick things off by stimulating the brain (hypothalamus and pituitary gland) to release a couple of hormones: gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH), luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH). It’s these later two that drive release and production of the sex steroids: testosterone (males) and estrogen (females).

Elevated sex steroids do two things very, very well: promote gamete production (fancy science term for sperm and eggs) and – importantly for our wayward teens and exhibitionist eagles – change our behaviour on a biochemical level – specifically mate seeking courtship rituals, desire and inclination to mate, and propensity for aggression and territorial displays

We see it everywhere, especially with birds; the dancing, singing, chasing.

Around mating season, loons will dance across the lake to attract a mate. I’m sure we’ve all seen teenagers in the grips of hormones behaving like loons.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, the receptors for our wonderful sex steroids are being unregulated, all the better to amplify these signals. But these unregulated receptors can also trigger another well trod behaviour: nesting, and not just the birds. Progesterone receptor (PR) up-regulation primes post-mating parental behaviour.

Why Are So Many Prone to Making Bad Decisions When in Love?

Our sex hormones play a huge role in shaping our romantic feelings. Attraction, bonding, and attachment are all influenced (note, not controlled) by the neurotransmitters and down stream cascade of hormones estrogen and testosterone release.

Our phases of love are well known as well, partially because of how affiliated with biological markers they are. Attraction, Infatuation, and Attachment. Let’s get to know the players behind our good (and bad) decisions, shall we?

The Phase of Love Hormones and Neurotransmitters

1. Dopamine (The Pleasure Hormone - Attraction and Infatuation))

• A neurotransmitter and hormone associated with pleasure and reward. It drives the excitement and euphoria of early romantic attraction by reinforcing the desire to pursue a partner. This hormone is responsible for the rush of infatuation and drives us to seek repeated interactions.

2. Serotonin (The Obsession Hormone - Attraction and Infatuation)

   • During early stages of love, serotonin (another neurotransmitter and hormone) levels drop, which can lead to obsessive thoughts about a partner. Over time, as relationships stabilize, serotonin levels normalize, promoting emotional balance and contentment. And perhaps triggering many of those ‘out of love’ rethinks?

3. Cortisol (The Stress Hormone - Attraction and Infatuation)

   • Cortisol levels rise during the initial stages of falling in love due to the "stressful" excitement of forming a new bond. This heightened state helps individuals focus on their partner but can be unpleasant. Luckily, they normalizes as relationships progress.

4. Oxytocin (The Love Hormone - Attachment Phase)

• Released during physical intimacy (hugging, contact, sex) to strengthen pair-bonding in the animal kingdom. Promotes feelings of trust, bonding, and emotional closeness and fosters positive communication and empathy.

5. Vasopressin (The Commitment Hormone - Attachment Phase)

• Vasopressin is associated with long-term commitment and monogamous behavior. It plays a role in maintaining stable pair bonds over time. Do your lovers stay loving? This hormone is involved.

Bringing Things Back to Writing

How does all this round back to romance and writing? Well, understanding the biological sources of these behaviours gives us a guideline of what should be happening.

For example, do your love interests have difficulty keeping their hands off each other? Do they make poor decisions when it comes to mating and courtship rituals? Do they perhaps display a varying level of agression? Overlook the faults of a partner they’re in the initial throes of infatuation with? Once the deed is done, do your romantically inclined characters shift behaviour towards nesting? They should if the hormonal wave they’re on has been a good one.

Next week? It’s time to talk about some sci-fi. Perhaps the amazing slime mold. Let me know if there’s a specific science of genre topic you’d like me to cover!

What I'm Reading this Weekend

Wondering what authors read in their non-writing spare time? This weekend I’ve been reading Ancillary Sword by Ann Leckie (finished the first one) and I’m two books into the Murder Bot series by Martha Wells.

I’m enjoying both (I’ve continued reading both, after all!) But what drew me to finally pick these titles up (they’ve been out for a while now both).

I’ve had MurderBot recommended to me a few times (each time bringing to mind the evil droid from the Star Wars KOTOR RPG from waaaaay back) and as it’s being made into a Netflix series, I finally bit the bullet and picked it up from my local library. I’m glad I did.

Ancillary I should have read years ago, but I was reading more along the lines of fantasy when it came out. The way it deals with social norms much reminds me of how Iain M Banks’ Culture Series (Player of Games) tackled social norms in the 80s – which I also recommend.

Ancillary Sword and Ancillary Justice are an interesting fictional hypothesis on how our species could evolve culturally and physically, and the story is fascinating too. Not a spoiller, but the novel is from the space ship’s perspective.

Also, since I’m writing a sci-fi, getting to know more modern writers and novels in the field (Beyond the Martian) is a plus.

I’ve got other books on my plate - a wonderful new WIP from Peter Clines – much enjoying – and even a few RomComs for research. I’ll highlight those next weekend – provided I mange to finish these three.

The Science of Fantasy: Respecting the Ecosystem

For those out there who don’t know me or are visiting for the first time, I’m a speculative fiction author in multiple genres (Kincaid Strange, The Adventures of Owl, Super Secret Sci-Fi). Though I’m best known for urban fantasy, I write in sci-fi and mystery as well. I also have a PhD and my background is absolutely in the sciences.

Laboratories, experiments, genetically modified organisms, big computers and, occasionally, turn of the century regents found in decades old lockers that may require a hazmat team to dispose of (there is a story there I will come back to another day for a science of sci-fi post).

My point is that, because of my background, whenever I want to bring something original to a story – whether it be mystery, fantasy, sci-fi, romance, or horror – my brain’s default is to ask: well, what does the science say?

For instance, let’s look at a perennial fantasy darling that rarely gets an overhaul: the mighty fairy!

Let’s give our ephemeral fairy a science-y makeover, shall well?

Why am I picking on a fairy? I feel like fairies and pixies don’t fit into their fantasy ecosystems. They look a little too much like humans. How did they survive their boreal and grasslands evolution? What advantages did they have over larger predators as they built their civilizations? We have size and the ability to make tools to take on much larger predators in groups with weapons. That logical, evolutionary step doesn’t work for me with the current pop culture manifestation of our picture of a fairy: a miniature human like creature, lithe, feminine leaning, beautiful, with pointed ears and wings.

What eco system do these creatures fill, and do are assumptions make sense? Or, do we have some wiggle room for some scientifically sound room for improvement?

Let’s assume our fairies live in a forest. That’s a safe and recognizable bet. What other creatures live in said forest? Probably predators, much bigger than them, who look upon our fairies as a delectable, slightly crunchy snack – wolves, cats, birds of prey, etc. Perhaps it makes more sense for our fairies to be nocturnal then? When all the other predatory creatures who view them as food are asleep.

What big eyes you have. All the better for seeing at night.

That means they need to have some form of lowlight vision. Owls and some mammals do this by increasing the size of their eyes. I can go for that. Night vision done!

While we’re at it, what do our nocturnal fairies eat? Are they vegetarians? Eating moss, berries, and other vegetation during the night? Possibly, but that leads us with a grazing problem. Herbivores need a higher input of food matter to derive energy, and in some cases, multiple stomachs. That means they’re more vulnerable as they eat, and that’s really all they have time to do. How about an insectivore? Insects provide a nice rounded complement of proteins – meaning our fairies have time for civilization geared activities – are plentiful at night, and would be a great prey for our fairies since they’re also winged and equipped to catch them. Insect capturing sports could be the basis for a thriving nightlife in their cities.

What else helps with chasing insects at night? The wings make it easier, but I’d like to add echolocation. I could see our already elongated ears acting as an amplifier for sound as they flit through the forest at night searching for a wayward moth. It’s the traditional hunting tool of the mighty insect chasing bat!

The more I think about it, the more fairies seem to have in common with the mighty bat. Suited to nocturnal activities, pointed ears, delicate wings?

So what does that leave us with?

‘An apple-sized, nocturnal insectivore with larger than average eyes, that scours the night skies in search of insects, hiding in dark, moss filled hollows, in riverside caves and tucked under the leaves of trees during the days. Perhaps they even evict the odd bird from a coveted enclosed nest. Are they secretive? Probably. Wary of anyone disturbing their forest hunting grounds where they use their unusual songs to track their prey amongst the trees? Most definitely.’

Personally, I think a more modern, and scientific take on a fairy lends it an appearance and evolution that shares more in common with a bat than a small human. Perhaps something like this…

Here’s our nocturnal insectivore evolved for a nighttime boreal existence. Defintely the kind of fairy I could get behind writing about.

Next week, I’ll be looking at the science of romance - young and in love. If you’d like to tune in and stay in the loop, follow me on social media and sign up to my emailing list.